In March of 2025, Metrolink set its all time weekend ridership record, but just one year later, Metrolink is now proposing eliminating all weekend service as it stares down the barrel of a budget crisis. Cuts could also eliminate evening and mid-day service and reduce rush hour trains, for a total service reduction of 40% – and that’s on top of the dozens of trains already removed from service. 6 million people ride Metrolink every year, but with these cuts many will be forced into their cars, as gas prices are topping $6/gallon and California runs out of Gulf oil. How did things get this bad? And how can you help save our vital regional rail?

Originally, Metrolink was solely a commuter service, with limited weekend and midday service. But in this post-pandemic world of remote work, the suburban commuter market Metrolink traditionally relied on simply commutes less often. In response, Metrolink created Metrolink Reimagined and the Southern California Optimized Rail Expansion (SCORE) Plan, with better schedules and $10 billion of capital investment to deliver 30 minute systemwide frequencies. While ridership has grown under Metrolink Reimagined, it hasn’t grown enough to meet Metrolink’s projections. Historically, a majority of funding for Metrolink comes from fares, and with high maintenance and operating costs and funding cuts from Metro and OCTA, Metrolink now has a $30M budget deficit.

January 4th, 2026 marked the end of a similar commuter-focused rail line, Minneapolis’s Northstar service. Built in 2010 around a peak hour connection between Minneapolis, MN and the outlying suburb in Big Lake, the line had seen steady ridership up until the COVID-19 pandemic, with around 750,000 annual riders. In response to the pandemic, the total number of weekly train trips was reduced from 72 to 20, eliminating weekend service and severely reducing weekday service to peak directions only. Ridership never recovered, with under 100,000 riders a year. Small improvements led to increased ridership, but by 2025 the state legislature advanced a bill to terminate Northstar service instead, rather than advancing modifications to Northstar which would have better matched travel patterns.

This pattern where a transit operator cuts service, then ridership falls off to a greater degree, leading to additional cycles of cuts and ridership collapses is known as a “transit death spiral”. And it could be coming for Metrolink soon if we don’t act.

Something similar happened after the 2008 Financial Crisis where Metrolink service was cut substantially, leading to additional ridership losses, as well as many OC Bus routes which were prioritized for cuts to close a budget shortfall. However, Metrolink escaped from the transit death spiral. They opened the first stages of all-day passenger rail service, the Metrolink Service Expansion Project, which was a condition of OCTA cancelling a planned intra-county rail system called Centerline. This service helped turn the tide on this ridership collapse a little bit, but when capacity was added between Los Angeles and Fullerton, ridership really improved. Post-COVID timetable restructures on the Ventura County and Antelope Valley Lines also showed significant ridership gains, of 15% and 36% quarter-over-quarter respectively in late 2023.

In October 2024, Metrolink rolled out a systemwide service expansion called “Metrolink Reimagined”. By restructuring its schedule to get more daily usage out of its existing fleet, Metrolink achieved a 23% increase in service and added 32 weekday trains. This included better transfers, more late night service, hourly trains on almost all of its lines, and even select half-hourly service on the San Bernardino line.  Ridership steadily increased, with weekend ridership setting a record in March 2025 with over 120,000 weekend boardings alone. The new service is incredibly cost-effective because it uses staff and equipment more efficiently than the peak-only service OCTA wants to return to. The full implementation of Metrolink Reimagined, now on the chopping block, would increase service by 93% with only 21% more funding.

During the last OCTA Board meeting, Chair Jamey Federico told constituents OCTA subsidizes Metrolink riders at “30 dollars a piece”. Unfortunately, this figure is both factually incorrect, and misrepresents the actual cost of subsidizing rail rather than other Measure M projects. According to OCTA’s own fact sheet, Metrolink received a $16.84 subsidy per boarding in fiscal year 2025, not $30. But this figure is still inaccurate. When looking at cost per passenger mile, Metrolink looks a lot better. The average Metrolink rider travels 39 miles, while an OC Bus rider travels about 5 miles. While the buses cost less per rider to operate, the costs per rider per mile are about the same. And accounting for inflation, OCTA’s contribution to Metrolink has actually gone down over time.  While OCTA claims poverty on Metrolink, they are spending nearly a billion dollars to widen the 5 freeway, a project that will increase traffic, noise, and air pollution. OCTA’s finances are stable and growing, with $310.5 million more spending than last year, and the Metrolink cuts only 0.3% of the total budget. They can find the money to keep Metrolink afloat.

Each Metrolink train can replace about 600  cars.  Metrolink serves long distance and cross county trips that OC Bus doesn’t. With fewer trains, most passengers will drive, clogging our already congested freeways. With gas prices through the roof due to the war in Iran, many leisure travelers will choose to stay home rather than shopping in Orange County, while commuters will struggle to afford their daily commute and cut down on spending. The result: a weaker economy and less Measure M sales tax revenue. Southern California is also gearing up for the 2028 Olympics, and will need to move many people during throughout the day. Cutting Orange County’s only long distance train service to the bone is not a smart choice.

Metrolink needs everyday people to speak up. Write an email to your OCTA Board member calling on them to reject the funding cut, submit a public comment to ClerkOffice@octa.net, and attend the May 26th or June 8th board meeting at 9:30 am at OCTA Headquarters if you are able.

Mason Buck lives in Irvine and is a member of Remaking Irvine Streets for Everyone. Adriana Rizzo lives in Riverside and is a member of Californians for Electric Rail

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