I may have been among the first to coin the term, Purple County, way back in 2018 to describe the evolving nature of Orange County residents at the ballot box.
Time – along with voting trends and the most recent polling – keeps proving that notion right.
When I first arrived in Orange County to start covering the county government back in 2004, OC was a solidly red county, with Republicans dominating the voter polls with over 700,000 registered voters, holding a 200,000 voter lead on the Democratic Party at the time.
Today, it’s just about the exact opposite.
Consider the most recent poll from UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology, where 36 percent of residents identified as nonpartisan voters vs. 34 percent identifying as Democrats and 30 percent as Republicans.
Now when it comes to current voter registration, Democrats are actually slightly ahead with 693,645 registered voters. Meanwhile, Republicans count on 644,483 voters while nonpartisan voters number 445,728.
“This balance helps explain why Orange County remains competitive,” wrote UCI report authors, concluding that “Rather than moving decisively toward one party, a significant share of voters remain outside traditional party structures.”
This is after all, a place that keeps voting for national Democratic presidential nominees like HIllary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris but also votes in scores of MAGA school board and city council members.
It’s also a place that dislikes President Trump and CA Governor Gavin Newsom almost equally, the UCI poll results showed.
“This poll portrays an electorate that is closely divided, modestly attached to political parties, and broadly dissatisfied with leadership at both the state and national levels,” poll authors wrote.
Yet Jon Gould, Dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology, and lead on the poll, points out an important distinction found in the polling.
“It’s different people disappointed with different parts of government,” Gould said, adding, “Republicans are disappointed in the state government. Democrats are disappointed in the federal government. And independents are just grumpy over everything right now.”
More and more here in Orange County, this kind of divided, detached and dissatifised electorate is forced on a regular basis to watch largely boring election contests between a revolving set of local politicos vying for the latest public office available.
These campaigns largely avoid any kind of real public debate or discussion about what they want to do but instead focus on ribbon cutting events and tailored mailers.
Those mailers in turn, fueled by millions from special interest groups across the state and county, allow candidates to have a one-way conversation with voters – with no pesky reporters or debate moderators to monitor accuracy.
Those expectations were on full display in the governors’ race recently when Xavier Becerra was caught on tape letting a reporter know his expectations about getting softball questions.
Katie Porter also had a similar experience with an investigative TV reporter with CBS News on tape where she ended an interview because of tough questions.
And people wonder why voting rates are so low.
Even sadder, is the hard fact that winning election here in Orange County is increasingly unconnected to public debate but instead hardwired on fundraising, which directly influences a candidates ability to get a message out and voters to the polls.
[Read: Special Interests Spend Heavily to Replace Outgoing OC Assemblywoman]
As the ensuing media storm ahead of the June primary hits us all in the next few weeks, like a final exam month, with our mailboxes swelling with political hit mail from all sides, I keep wondering how the purple trend will play out amidst all the money, mail and social media ads.
There is one sure thing, for real coverage of the players and issues in the most competitive races in the June primary, check out our voter guide, a basic primer that will put you in a position to make an informed choice, regardless of political party.
