The City of Seal Beach is gearing its residents up to prepare for the El Nino season – one that experts warn could be the strongest on record.
“There’s a very high likelihood, something like 95% to 99%, it’s about as certain as we can get in the predictive world that this event will become among the strongest on record,” said Climate Scientist Dr. Daniel Swain at the Sept. 14 council meeting. “I mean we’re pretty much already there.”
It comes after high tide and surf from Hurricane Marie prompted three cities on Orange County’s coastline to declare a state of emergency after the high tide and surf damaged homes, infrastructure and the coast itself.
[Read: OC Beach Cities Declare States of Emergency After High Tides Batter Coast]
On Tuesday, Seal Beach City Council members were warned of potential flooding along the coast from high tides as local officials build a sand berm to curb the impact from El Niño, which could stretch into March.
According to Swain, experts are expecting that the peak of El Nino’s intensity will be between October and December.
However, Swain said the strongest impacts in California won’t be seen until one to three months after the peak of the event, with high risk of coastal flooding and rainfall expected to take place from December through March of next year.
“I am actually anticipating that at least some parts of the California coast will see their worst coastal inundations on record, rivaling or exceeding what many locations saw in 97’, 98’, 82’, 83’,” Swain said, referring to severe El Niño years.
El Nino is a climate pattern that occurs naturally in the Pacific every two to seven years, making ocean waters warmer than normal. This period typically lasts for nine months to a year and helps the Pacific Ocean to release excess heat from the entire global ocean system that has accumulated for years.
This concentrated release of heat is what affects the countries close to where the heat primarily is in the ocean. Countries such as Costa Rica, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras usually face intense and frequent hurricanes during this period. It also affects places that are thousands of miles away, like California.
However, experts like Swain say this year’s El Niño is stronger than usual.
“We are in rare, if not unprecedented, territory here,” Swain said.
According to climate experts, Southern California specifically will face disruptions in marine ecosystems, increased coastal humidity, and higher sea levels that are expected to get significantly worse during fall and winter. Ocean levels are expected to rise temporarily up to two feet.
In a worst case scenario for the city, Swain says a significant chunk of residential areas will be affected by flooding – pointing to blocks in Naples and Sunset Beach.
Responding to Councilwoman Patty Senecal’s concerns about high surf, Swain said the waves will be more energetic and prone to causing damage.
The chance of heavy rainfall and flooding will cause storm water runoff to be particularly dangerous – the overflow of untreated water carries the potential to have human waste, wildlife waste and more in it.
Seal Beach Police Sergeant Brian Gray followed Swain’s presentation with one of his own, detailing how the city is preparing to take on increased tides and potential storms.
The city has accelerated work on their 14-foot winter sand berm that they put up annually, while staging pumps and barricades and issuing public updates as conditions changed.
“The city has several measures in place and has already exercised many of them. Staff monitor National Weather Service forecast, tide, surf and conditions reported from the field,” Gray said at the Sept. 14 council meeting.
“Police, public works, marine safety, city management and OCFA coordinate before and during significant events,” he added.
Senior Engineer David Spitz explained to the city council that while the berm will help with the impacts of flooding, there will still be some flooding and ponding on the city’s boardwalk.
“The ocean water, especially during storms, will run up and over it. It will run around it. If it’s a very intense storm, it might eat through parts of it. But what the berm does do is reduce, significantly, the impact of the force of waves during storms,” Spitz said at the Sept. 14 council meeting.
Seal Beach isn’t alone in preparing for high surf and big waves.
In coastal towns to the south, the cities of Laguna Beach and Dana Point have declared a state of emergency after Hurricane Marie brought in high tides that severely eroded their beaches. The declaration makes it easier for the cities to get the funding needed to fix the damage left by the tides, while giving them the flexibility to address the evolving natural event.
Most recently, San Clemente city council members declared a local emergency and approved emergency sand placement on North Beach after high tides damaged private property and 17 braces at the pier.
[Read: San Clemente Proclaims Emergency After High Tides Damage Coastline ]
Seal Beach Police Sergeant Gray explained that educating residents is a key in preparing for incoming El Niño and pointed to the police department’s emergency preparedness website.
During the rainy season, Seal Beach city officials are slated to distribute free sandbags at Arbor Park, Fire Stations 44 and 48, and Marina Park.
Other emergency preparedness supplies will be 25% off for participants of the Seal Beach Neighbor 4 Neighbor program – an initiative led by the police department aimed at spurring community aid through mutual neighborhood assistance.
Seal Beach PD will also be hosting a flood mitigation workshop to train residents in hands-on flood mitigation practices on Oct. 6.
“There will be at least one very wet month, maybe more than one, and there could be significant flood risk,” Swain said in his closing remarks. “The time to prepare is now, so I’m glad we’re having this conversation in September and not in December.”
Sara Leon is a Voice of OC reporting fellow. You can reach her at sleon7903@gmail.com.
