Some of Orange County’s Congressional races are likely to become another national electoral battleground, echoing previous election years.

A similar trend appeared in s 2018 when Democrats swept the local Congressional races in the historically Republican county. 

This year, a host of congressional candidates are headed into the March 5 primary, looking to be among the top two vote getters to head to November. 

As of mid-December, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in countywide voter registration by over 80,000 voters – 685,916 registered Democrats compared to 605,190 registered Republicans. 

There’s also more than 423,000 No Party Preference voters. 

“Orange County for decades and decades and decades was considered a red county – it was a conservative bastion,” said Mike Moodian, a Chapman University professor who closely monitors and researches political issues like Congressional races and voter tendencies.

In 2020, Republicans took back some lost ground – winning back two of the four lost seats. They also held onto them in 2022.  

“The county has changed a lot to the point now where it’s much more balanced,” Moodian said. 

In all, there will be five Congressional races across Orange County, with two races featuring the most competitive – and closely watched – battles. 

Will Trump Impact Races? 

With former President Donald Trump likely to be back on the ballot in the upcoming November election, Fullerton College professor and local politics observer Jodi Balma said that could backfire on local Republican candidates, like it did in 2018. 

“The playbook that ties the candidates to Donald Trump is still an effective play for a lot of voters,” Balma said. 

The county as a whole voted against Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections. 

But, Balma said, if former South Carolina Gov. and U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley clinches the Republican presidential nomination, that might upend that strategy. 

“It is harder to do that with Nikki Haley on the ballot,” she said, adding that Haley’s chances are slim.  

Moodian also said Republicans in Congressional districts with close voter registration numbers face an uphill battle if Trump heads to the November election. 

“I think that we will see the anti-Trump effect show up and that will not help Republican candidates in Orange County,” he said.

The Battle for South County’s Vacant Congressional Seat

The upcoming March 5 primary election comes as Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating her 47th Congressional District seat for a shot at becoming California’s next U.S. Senator. 

National Democrats and Republicans are now eying that district as part of the national battle between the two parties for a Congressional majority. 

As of Oct. 3, Democrats have a slim edge in voter registration numbers in the district – a little over 160,000, according to data from the Secretary of State.  

Republicans aren’t far behind at nearly 153,000 registered voters, according to data from the California Secretary of State.  

Meanwhile, No Party Preference voters make up roughly a quarter of registered voters at nearly 110,000.

Voters in the 47th district overwhelmingly voted against Trump in the 2020 election. 

Orange County has seen a sizeable increase of No Party Preference voters since the turn of the century, while Republicans have been losing ground. 

There’s a host of 47th Congressional district candidates heading into the March 2024 primary election, including State Sen. Dave Min, former Assemblyman and former county GOP chair Scott Baugh, and Joanna Weiss, a Democrat and founder of the Women for American Values and Ethics (WAVE) local activist group. 

Baugh has fundraised roughly $1.5 million as of Sept. 30, while Min and Weiss aren’t far behind at roughly $1.2 million fundraised by each. 

Republican Max Ukropina, a local business owner, has fundraised $440,000 so far. 

None of the other official candidates show any fundraising activity on the Federal Election Commission website. 

Min comes with some recent controversy – a DUI arrest earlier this year followed by probation, according to the OC Register. State and county Republicans have been painting the Senator as “DUI Dave” in emails and on social media. 

And Baugh is no stranger to controversy either. 

In 1996 he was accused of scheming to split the Democratic vote in a local special election, facing felonies and misdemeanors at first. After the Democratic State Attorney General stepped in, the issue was downgraded to a $48,000 civil fine in 1999, according to the LA Times. 

Who Will Challenge Michelle Steel? 

National parties are also gearing up for the 45th Congressional District election, with incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Seal Beach) looking to keep her seat. 

Trump also lost the district in 2020 as Steel won reelection that year.

Democratic candidates Cheynne Hunt, a social media influencer and former clerk for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN); Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, also a Garden Grove councilwoman; and personal injury attorney Derek Tran are looking to unseat Steel. 

“Michelle Steel has an easy pass to November. So it’s just a question of who will be the Democrat who gets the most votes. You have an establishment Democrat in Kim Nguyen Penaloza and then Cheyenne Hunt, which is certainly an interesting candidate,” Balma said in an early December interview. 

Steel has raised the most money as of Sept. 30 at $3.2 million, while Hunt raised $272,000, Nguyen-Penaloza had $206,000. 

Tran, a U.S. Army veteran, shows no fundraising activity on the FEC website for the period ending Sept. 30, but a campaign email Tuesday stated he has raised nearly $530,000 since kicking off his campaign Oct. 1.

Steel won her reelection in 2022 by more than 10,000 votes – a little more than a 4-point margin – in a district where Democrats have an edge in voter registration.

Democrats have about 25,000 more registered voters than Republicans in the district. 

Meanwhile, the local Republican Party of Orange County has been trying to regain lost ground on voter registration, sending out emails encouraging people to help their friends register as a Republican. 

While it’s too early to tell for certain, Moodian said he expects some competitive races in November.. 

“We will see competitive races, but we will likely see a strong anti-Trump turnout and that will help Democratic candidates.” 

Correction: This story previously stated the primary election is March 4, it’s March 5. We regret the error.

Spencer Custodio is the civic editor. You can reach him at scustodio@voiceofoc.org. Follow him on Twitter @SpencerCustodio.